Pool Trouble

 

Sure, we have wars, countries invaded, blockades, and high prices, but one bit of unintended comic relief from this current administration is the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool debacle.  The moment it was reported that there were multiple no-bid contracts, many of us knew that there had to be a Youngstown area connection.  J. J. Cafaro and his Greenwater Services (that really is the company name!) received one of the no-bid contracts.  The other, larger, payment went to a Virginia company, Atlantic Industrial Coatings.  We have no word as to whether the owners of Atlantic Industrial Coatings have ever lived in Niles or Warren.  Though the president would like to claim vandalism, it appears that the Reflecting Pool is a visible reminder of this administration’s incompetence. 

My concern is another pool, one that is being intentionally vandalized.  I am worried about the health insurance pool.  This blog has often stated:

·         Health insurance is the way most Americans access and pay for health care

·         You can not build a system based on the sick and the responsible.

The American Academy of Actuaries has a wonderful, easy to read explanation of Risk Pooling and how it effects the individual health insurance market.  This is the link.  There is nothing new on their website.  These are really the basics. If you only have healthy people in the pool, the rates are cheap.  If you can get rid of someone the moment that they have the nerve to get either sick or injured, the rates can stay very cheap.  If you are only insuring unhealthy or unlucky people, the rates are very expensive.  The only way to protect everyone, even if someone develops a terrible disease in the future, is to expand the pool to cover as many people as possible across the utilization spectrum. 

We have discussed Project 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill,  and the intentional attack on the health insurance system numerous times.  Most of last year’s posts were nothing more than a warning.  And of course, I did hear from some of my readers that I was overstating the impact of Congress’s actions and the intentional choice to eliminate the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Subsidies.  This is from my December 7^th post, The Fog Of Insurance: 

"The Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Subsidies were a part of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021.  This was the first meaningful tweak of Obamacare.  The focus was to make health insurance more affordable by tying the tax credit subsidies to a percentage of the individual’s/family’s income.   These subsidies were a huge help to people age 55 to 64 ½, individuals who pay higher premiums due to their age.  And the enhanced tax credit subsidies of the ARPA also made health insurance affordable to the residents of states that chose to not expand Medicaid.  Many, perhaps millions, of Americans will lose their health insurance if the enhanced premium tax credits are eliminated." 

We are now getting the results.  There are NO SURPRISES.  In June we learned that 2.6 million fewer Americans have coverage through the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  According to the Associated Press, there was a 13% drop in enrollment as measured by a comparison of February 2026 vs. February 2025.  The same article also quotes Cynthia Cox of the Kaiser Family Foundation:

“We know that real people lost their health insurance coverage,” said Cynthia Cox, a vice president and director of the ACA program at the healthcare research nonprofit KFF, citing survey findings on people who had left their plans. “This coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced double or even triple digit increases in their premium payments.” 

And what state had the highest percentage drop in enrollment?  You know the answer – OH  IO! Yes, we lost 32.4%, over 160,000 Ohioans.  Here is a link to the state by state breakdown.  Florida had the most people lose their coverage, with a drop in enrollment of close to 450,000.  But these figures are as of February.  Worse, more people are dropping their coverage every month as they are overwhelmed by the premiums as well as the increases they are experiencing in the costs of food, housing, and gasoline. 

Those individuals who are currently using their insurance to help to pay for ongoing medical services will do their best to retain their coverage.  The healthiest may be tempted to test their luck for the rest of the year by dropping their coverage.  The insurance pool shrinks and the rates must go up.  This will only serve to force more people to abandon their health insurance coverage.  This is how you create a death spiral.  Our Congressmen, like Dave Joyce from Lake County, might want to feign ignorance, but they had more than enough warning through the fall of 2025. 

Insurance premiums will continue to increase.  The now-uninsured will eventually need care due to illness or injury and will present a further drain on the health care system.  New Medicaid cuts, also a part of the Big Beautiful Bill, will begin on January 1, 2027.  This will force the system to absorb even more people who are unable to pay for the services they need. 

We will all be negatively impacted by the vandalization of the insurance pool.  President Trump claimed that there was a 350 foot gash in the indestructible lining he had placed in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.  That’s not true.  But there is now a huge gash in the system 342 million Americans depend on. 

Dave

Health Insurance Issues With Dave

Picture – More Dangerous Than A Boxcutter – David L Cunix